Markets now price a 96 percent chance that the Bank of England will raise the base rate by a quarter point to 4 percent on Thursday 5 November, after consumer price inflation jumped to 3.5 percent in September.
The shift follows a 6-3 vote to hold at 3.75 percent in September, when three members of the Monetary Policy Committee backed an immediate increase. Chief economist Huw Pill, who sits on the Committee, has since signalled support for higher rates, while last week’s Budget did little to relieve pressure on the Bank, according to Bloomberg reporting cited in trade coverage.
Buy-to-let borrowers sit directly in the path of any move. Lender fixed rates, priced off market expectations rather than the base rate itself, have already drifted up through October as rate-rise bets hardened. A confirmed rise on Thursday would lock in that higher pricing just as landlords plan refinancing for 2027.
96 percent chance of rise to 4 percent
The Financial Times Investors Chronicle reports traders see a near-96 percent chance of a quarter-point rise at noon on Thursday, when the Committee announces its decision alongside the quarterly Monetary Policy Report. A poll of mortgage brokers by Mortgage One found most expect the Bank rate to reach 4 percent this week, with further increases next year toward 5 percent.
Inflation stood at 3.1 percent in August before jumping to 3.5 percent in September, the Office for National Statistics confirmed. Transport and motor fuels made the largest upward contribution, while conflict in the Middle East continues to push up energy prices. This follows Landlord Knowledge’s September report that the Bank held the base rate at 3.75 percent with three members voting for a rise, a split that now looks like a staging post.
Buy-to-let mortgage pricing already moving
Fixed buy-to-let deals have edged up in recent weeks as swap rates responded to the inflation data. Lenders repriced selected fixes higher through October, reversing some of the cuts seen in late summer. Brokers say borrowers who delayed decisions ahead of the Budget now face a thinner choice of sub-4 percent fixes.
That tightening lands at an awkward point in the cycle. UK Finance data showed buy-to-let lending jumped 21 percent in the second quarter, and Paragon research this week found four in 10 mortgaged landlords plan to refinance in the next year, covering an average of 2.9 loans each. Higher-for-longer pricing directly raises the cost of that wave. The ONS bulletin confirms CPI rose to 3.5 percent in September, while the Bank of England confirms the next rate decision is due at noon on 5 November.
A base rate rise would also feed through to tracker and variable deals within days, lifting payments for landlords sitting on revert rates while they weigh fixed options.
What this means for landlords
- If you refinance in the next six months: speak to a broker before Thursday. A 0.25 point rise is largely priced into fixes, but a hawkish vote split or signal of more rises to come could trigger a fresh round of repricing.
- Watch for: the vote split and the Monetary Policy Report at noon on 5 November. A 6-3 or 7-2 vote for a rise points to further tightening; any mention of persistent energy-driven inflation matters more than the single decision.
- Bottom line: budget for 4 percent now, with room for higher. Stress-test portfolios at 5 percent to avoid surprises if brokers are right about successive moves next year.
Editor’s view
Landlords have grown used to rate cuts doing the heavy lifting on affordability. That prop is now gone. With inflation back at 3.5 percent and a rise to 4 percent priced as near-certain, the smart move is to lock in certainty early rather than gamble on a dovish surprise that markets say will not come.
Author: Editorial Team – UK landlord & buy-to-let news, policy, and finance
Published: 02 November 2026
Sources: Bank of England, Office for National Statistics, Mortgage One broker poll
Related reading: Bank of England holds 3.75% as three MPC members seek rise
