The UK government is on track to fall drastically short of its pledge to deliver 1.5 million new homes by 2029, according to a new forecast from Savills. The property consultancy estimates just 840,000 new homes will be completed in the five years to 2028/29—falling more than 40% below the target, raising questions about the effectiveness of current housing policy.
The shortfall, Savills warns, reflects not only slow planning approvals and high build costs, but also weak buyer demand, lack of developer confidence, and the absence of a replacement for the Help to Buy scheme, which ended in March 2023. With completions falling again to 180,700 homes in 2024/25, based on EPC data, landlords and investors may increasingly be relied upon to fill the growing housing gap.
“Based on current policy and trends, housing completions are likely to remain low, between 160,000 and 170,000 per year,” said Dan Hill, part of Savills’ residential research team.
Build to Rent remains bright spot—but faces cost headwinds
While private homeownership activity stagnates, Build to Rent (BTR) has grown as a share of new housing supply, with a record 18,100 BTR completions in 2023/24. However, starts have fallen sharply—down 59% since October 2022—following interest rate hikes and political instability linked to the 2022 mini-budget.
This slowdown threatens to hit completions in the years ahead, despite ongoing investor appetite. For landlords active in the BTR sector or considering larger-scale investment, these supply constraints could strengthen rental yields and reduce competition—but only if financing remains viable.
Landlords offering well-maintained, energy-efficient homes will likely benefit most from these market imbalances, especially in areas where new supply is stalling.
“Delivery will be constrained by the speed at which the housebuilding sector can expand its supply chains and labour force,” Hill noted. “At most, we think very significant demand support could push completions to 1.2 million by March 2029.”
Affordable housing stalled by funding gaps and inflation
Another casualty of current pressures is affordable housing, where completions are expected to fall sharply. Affordable housing starts dropped 39% in the year to March 2024, with an 88% collapse in London, as housing associations face higher costs and reduced real rental income.
The Regulator of Social Housing also reports that Registered Providers now expect to build 12% fewer homes over the next five years compared to their own previous forecasts. Without a major boost in grant funding, the government’s social housing pipeline is unlikely to recover—leaving private landlords as one of the few functioning sources of rental stock, especially for younger tenants and those priced out of ownership.
Is it time to bring back Help to Buy?
Savills argues that without large-scale demand support, such as a new equity loan scheme, it will be nearly impossible to meet the 1.5 million homes target. While the government has resisted calls to reintroduce Help to Buy, industry leaders are increasingly urging ministers to reconsider.
The original Help to Buy initiative allowed completions to grow at rapid rates—10.8% in 2013 and 15.7% in 2014 and 2016. Replicating that level of growth over the next four years could still bring total delivery to around 1.2 million homes—well short of the target, but a substantial improvement nonetheless.
For landlords, the message is clear: housing supply remains structurally constrained. Whether you’re letting to students, professionals, or families, the mismatch between supply and demand is likely to persist for the foreseeable future. With new completions lagging and rental demand still climbing, the outlook for well-positioned landlords remains strong.
