Official HMRC data shows transaction volumes holding firm despite higher borrowing costs and post-Budget uncertainty. The figures offer investors clearer signals on timing, pricing and risk as they plan acquisitions or portfolio reshaping in 2026.
Provisional seasonally adjusted data shows 100,440 residential property transactions completed in December 2025, marginally lower than November but 5 percent higher than December 2024. Activity has remained broadly flat since summer, following a wave of deals brought forward ahead of stamp duty threshold changes that took effect on 1 April 2025.
Residential transactions support buy-to-let market stability
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, residential transactions rose to 105,730 in December, up 1 percent month on month and 7 percent year on year. For rental property owners, this consistency matters more than short-term spikes, helping underpin valuations and reduce the risk of abrupt pricing corrections.
The data confirms that the distortion caused by the stamp duty deadline has largely worked through the system. Since July, monthly transaction volumes have clustered tightly around the 100,000 mark, signalling a market that has recalibrated rather than stalled.
Nathan Emerson, chief executive of Propertymark, said the resilience was encouraging. “Based on December 2025’s figures, it is encouraging to see that property transactions remained stable following the Autumn Budget,” he said. He added that the clarity provided allowed households to continue progressing with plans to buy or sell.
For property investors, steady sales volumes help support exit strategies, refinancing decisions and confidence when assessing new purchases.
Non-residential property data shows selective investor caution
Non-residential transactions tell a more uneven story. Seasonally adjusted figures fell to 10,640 in December, down 10 percent on November but still 7 percent higher than a year earlier. Non-seasonally adjusted volumes rose 4 percent month on month to 11,850.
This pattern suggests that November’s spike was temporary, with activity now settling back to levels seen in October. Higher financing costs and deal complexity continue to weigh on non-residential investment decisions, particularly where leverage is higher.
According to HMRC commentary released alongside the data, transaction levels have broadly stabilised following volatility earlier in the financial year, reinforcing the view that underlying demand remains intact rather than retreating.
Mortgage costs shape landlord behaviour
While transactions remain steady, investor behaviour continues to evolve. Higher interest rates are discouraging moves among owners locked into historically low fixed deals, tightening supply in some areas and supporting rental demand.
Ryan McGrath, director of second charge mortgages at Pepper Money, said the figures mask timing effects. “It’s important to note that these figures don’t yet reflect the pause in activity ahead of the November Budget, due to the lag between agreed sales and recorded completions,” he said.
He added that the direction of travel is becoming clearer. “With inflation easing and mortgage pricing continuing to soften, households are gaining greater certainty as we move into 2026.”
This is translating into a preference for improving rather than moving. McGrath noted that demand remains strong among borrowers funding renovations or rebalancing finances while keeping existing mortgage rates intact.
What landlords are taking from the data:
- Transaction volumes have stabilised, reducing pricing volatility.
- Supply constraints may continue as fewer owners choose to move.
- Falling mortgage rates could unlock selective buying opportunities later in 2026.
Editor’s view
Stability rarely makes headlines, but for landlords it creates opportunity. With transactions holding firm and borrowing costs gradually easing, 2026 is shaping up as a year for measured decisions rather than bold bets. The key question is whether investors act early, or wait for certainty that may already be priced in.
Author: Editorial team – UK landlord & buy-to-let news, policy, and finance
Published: 30 January 2026
Sources: HMRC property transactions data; Propertymark; Pepper Money
Related reading: Property transactions rise as investor confidence edges back
