Buyer demand in the UK housing market has started 2026 more strongly than expected, with early January activity running ahead of seasonal norms. According to senior figures at Berkeley Group, confidence has improved since November’s Budget, with knock-on implications for house prices, development pipelines and landlord investment decisions.
Rob Perrins, executive chairman of Berkeley Group, said the first weeks of January had delivered a level of buyer interest more typical of late winter than the post-Christmas lull. His comments were made on Housing Unpacked, produced by Knight Frank.
UK house prices supported by early-year buyer demand
“We have had an unusually good couple of weeks at the start of the year,” Perrins said. “Normally you have to wait until week three, but I have been encouraged by demand.”
Knight Frank’s own market data shows buyer enquiries and agreed sales rising after November’s Budget, as households and investors brought forward decisions amid speculation over possible property tax changes. Crucially for confidence, higher-end buyers were reassured when mansion tax thresholds were left unchanged.
For landlords, this matters. Stronger buyer demand at the start of the year often feeds through into firmer UK house prices by spring, supporting loan-to-value ratios and refinancing options. In practical terms, even a modest 2% annual price rise on a £250,000 rental property equates to £5,000 of additional equity – often the difference between accessing a new mortgage product or not.
Buy-to-let market outlook remains finely balanced
Despite the positive start, Perrins was clear that a few weeks of activity do not yet mark a full market recovery. “Where are we in the cycle? We could have an uptick if the environment improves, or we could have another downtick,” he said.
That caution will resonate with buy-to-let investors. Mortgage rates remain elevated compared with the pre-2022 era, and political uncertainty continues to weigh on sentiment. According to UK Finance data published last autumn, buy-to-let purchase lending was still running around a third below long-term averages, reflecting tighter affordability tests.
Perrins highlighted domestic political volatility as a potential drag on confidence but drew a distinction between short-term Westminster noise and longer-term fundamentals. “There is a strong affinity around the world with the UK as a place for investment and education,” he said – a view echoed by many large-scale residential investors targeting rental-led schemes.
Planning constraints hit housing supply and landlord strategy
Beyond near-term demand, Perrins returned to a familiar industry frustration: the planning system. He argued it has become overly regulated, undermining the viability of new residential developments.
That has direct consequences for landlords. Restricted new supply, particularly in London and the South East, continues to place upward pressure on rents. ONS data shows average private rents in England rose by more than £90 a month over the past year, with even sharper increases in regional cities where development pipelines have slowed.
Perrins’ perspective is shaped by decades at Berkeley, including working alongside the firm’s founder Tony Pidgley. His comments underline a broader industry view: without planning reform, housing shortages will persist, keeping rents high but limiting transaction volumes.
Editor’s view
A strong January does not guarantee a booming year, but it does suggest the housing market is more resilient than many headlines imply. The message is familiar to landlords: tight supply is underpinning rents, while buyer confidence flickers back whenever policy risks recede. The real question is whether planning reform ever moves from rhetoric to reality.
Author: Editorial team – UK landlord & buy-to-let news, policy, and finance.
Published: 16 January 2026
Sources: Berkeley Group; Knight Frank; UK Finance; Office for National Statistics
Related reading: House prices slip to six-month low after December decline
