Landlords and property investors are watching tomorrows Autumn Budget closely as speculation builds around new taxes, incentives, and funding changes affecting rental income, retrofit projects, and future investment decisions. With borrowing costs already higher and legislation tightening, many fear the Chancellor may add further financial pressure at a time when rental supply remains fragile across the UK.
National Insurance & rental tax proposals spark concern
One of the most contentious rumours is a proposal to introduce National Insurance contributions on rental income – a revenue stream that has historically been exempt. For landlords already carrying higher mortgage costs and stricter regulatory requirements, another fiscal burden could make existing portfolios financially unsustainable.
Anna Moore, co-founder and CEO of retrofit specialist Domna, warned that additional taxation risks undermining energy improvement efforts:
“Landlords are already grappling with the rising cost of meeting new energy efficiency and safety standards. Adding National Insurance to rental income squeezes the very budgets they rely on to upgrade cold, inefficient homes. The risk is that owners take properties off the market rather than invest in retrofit, which deepens the housing shortage.”
Recent rental market data from the ONS shows the average rent has increased by nearly 8% year-on-year, equivalent to around £92 per month for the typical tenant. Despite headlines suggesting landlords benefit from rising rents, the NRLA and multiple letting agents repeatedly stress that increased rent is largely absorbed by higher maintenance, compliance and borrowing expenses – not profit.
Retrofit costs and VAT reform: opportunity or missed chance?
A competing set of rumours hints the Chancellor may cut VAT on retrofit and energy-efficiency improvements – a move widely welcomed by the construction sector, green manufacturers and private landlords.
Data from the government’s £1.8bn Social Housing Decarbonisation Fund shows only 25,000 homes upgraded so far, compared with 94,000 planned, and just 51,500 energy efficiency measures installed out of nearly 300,000 expected.
Moore argues a VAT cut would unlock scale:
“Cutting VAT on energy efficiency upgrades is one of the smartest decisions the Chancellor makes. External wall insulation is now 25 percent more expensive than originally assumed and heat pumps are 34 percent higher. A lower VAT rate offsets those increases, unlocks stalled projects and allows landlords to go deeper on each home instead of scaling back work.”
For many landlords – particularly those with older Victorian or EPC-banding-at-risk stock – lower VAT could be the difference between holding and selling. The alternative is stark: fewer compliant homes and an even tighter rental market.
Wealth taxes, CGT and exit levies: signals raising eyebrows
Higher-value property owners also face possible reforms to Capital Gains Tax, inheritance tax reliefs and, controversially, a potential new “exit tax” on those relocating wealth offshore.
Nathan Gill, chief product officer at Redpin, which processes £10bn in annual cross-border transactions, said investor behaviour is already shifting:
“Our extensive data on where Brits are buying homes abroad shows high value transactions shifting towards more tax efficient jurisdictions such as Dubai. The Budget has increased property taxation again, and the pace of outward migration among wealthier households will increase as a result.”
If taxes rise further, Gill predicts acceleration:
“The moment the government started briefing the media on wealth and exit taxes, wealthy people began planning. Individuals don’t tend to wait for the fine print. They move quickly and take their capital with them.”
Landlords operating within structured portfolios, SIPPs or family investment vehicles, these signals could reshape long-term planning – especially as yields tighten and regulation climbs.
Editor’s view
This Budget feels like a fork in the road. The government can either stabilise the rental market with pragmatic tax reform and energy support – or risk pushing more investors out of the sector entirely, increasing scarcity and rents in the process. Landlords don’t need handouts; they need clarity, consistency, and a tax environment that recognises housing as essential national infrastructure rather than a political target. Whether the Chancellor chooses stability or ideology tomorrow will determine the speed and scale of investor confidence returning.
Author: Editorial team – UK landlord and buy-to-let news, policy, and finance.
Published: 25 November 2025
Sources: ONS, NRLA, Redpin, UK Government housing briefing, Social Housing Decarbonisation Fund statistics
Related reading: Property development pipeline weakens as Budget rumours unsettle investors
