UK house prices flatlined in November, according to Halifax’s latest index, nudging up by just £139 month-on-month – a shift landlords view as stability rather than stagnation, especially with affordability improving and interest rates expected to fall in 2026. While annual price growth slowed to 0.7%, investors are reading this as a year of consolidation rather than decline.
Housing market outlook
Halifax’s Amanda Bryden framed 2025 as “one of the most stable years for the housing market over the last decade”, despite rate rises, Stamp Duty tweaks and fiscal jitters before the Autumn Budget. Flat pricing may disappoint some owners banking on capital uplift, yet this softer trajectory arguably extends the rental window for portfolio expansion.
Affordability is gradually returning. Halifax notes mortgage costs as a share of income are at their lowest in three years, and, compared with average earnings, conditions are the most favourable since late 2015. That matters for rental demand: first-time buyers finding conditions “strongest in years” often accelerates rental churn – with many unable to move until more price softness filters through.
Meanwhile, Propertymark’s Nathan Emerson characterised the stability as a paradox. “Prices are still unaffordable for many aspiring buyers,” he warned, adding that pay growth is running at just 0.5%. He argues the Planning and Infrastructure Bill, expected before Christmas, “should moderate prices over the longer term” by boosting supply – a development landlords will monitor for any drag on rents or uplift in new-build competition.
Regional property variations and landlord opportunity
Regionally, contrasts are stark – and provide potential entry points. Northern Ireland remains the standout performer with annual growth close to 9% and an average price of £220,716. Scotland’s values climbed almost 4% to £216,781, whereas the North West and North East led England’s winners, rising 3.2% and 2.9% respectively.
London was the clear laggard, registering a 1% decline to an eye-watering £539,766 average. “Prices in the north of England, Scotland and Northern Ireland ratcheted up while they fell in London and surrounding counties,” observed Jonathan Hopper, CEO of Garrington Property Finders. He described 2025 as “positively K-shaped”, with high-end London sentiment rattled by pre-Budget uncertainty and mansion tax fears. Yet he expects wealthy buyers to return in 2026.
For investors, this wide spread hints at arbitrage plays: stronger yields in lower-value regions versus prime-market upside for those anticipating capital recovery in London. Marc von Grundherr of Benham & Reeves highlighted the annual picture: “The market has held firm despite all that’s been thrown at it,” he said – a sentiment mirrored by agents reporting resilience even in higher-priced districts.
Buy-to-let investment strategy as approvals fall and supply stutters
Transaction data reveals mixed momentum. HMRC’s October figures show deals up nearly 6% on the quarter, yet mortgage approvals dipped 1% month-on-month and nearly 5% on the year, according to the Bank of England. That shrinkage in lending volumes tells a story portfolio owners understand well – deals are happening, but only where buyers perceive value.
The RICS survey underlines this fragility, with agreed sales slipping further into negative territory and new instructions subdued. Hopper describes this as a “market suspended between confidence and caution”. In practice, some landlords remain selective, banking on further rate cuts before refinancing or expanding.
Next year’s anticipated Bank of England moves – potentially softening borrowing costs – could tilt the table. Premium markets like London may see deferred demand return, especially if Budget risks dissipate, supporting a firmer start to 2026.
Editor’s view
A year of steadiness has given landlords breathing room. Yet the question isn’t whether prices rise or fall next – it’s who benefits more from a calmer trajectory: first-time buyers or portfolio holders repositioning for cheaper finance? With rates likely easing and regional divergence widening, 2026 could reward those willing to move before confidence fully returns.
Author: Editorial team – UK landlord & buy-to-let news, policy, and finance.
Published: 5 December 2025
Sources: Halifax House Price Index, Propertymark commentary, HMRC transaction data, Bank of England mortgage approvals, RICS Market Survey, Benham & Reeves, Garrington Property Finders.
Related reading: House prices hold steady as buyers return following Autumn Budget
