England is on course to miss the government’s 1.5 million home target by more than 660,000 homes over the next five years, according to new Savills forecasts, adding fresh pressure to the rental market landlords already operate in.
Savills says annual completions in England are likely to average 167,500 through to 2029/30, far below the 300,000-a-year pace needed to hit the target. That would leave total delivery at about 837,500 homes across the period.
For landlords and property investors, the immediate point is not just that housebuilding is undershooting again. It is that weak supply, slower starts and soft affordability are combining in a way that could keep tenant demand firmer for longer even if rent growth has cooled from earlier peaks.
Savills sees a thinner pipeline of new homes
In its latest housing delivery forecast for England, Savills said completions fell 4.1 percent to 190,602 in the year to March 2025 and are now expected to drop further in 2026/27 and 2027/28 to a little over 150,000 homes.
Emily Williams, director of residential research at Savills, said the underlying picture is becoming more difficult because low planning consents and starts are leaving a thinner pipeline of homes under construction, while affordability pressure, higher rates and rising development costs are constraining demand and viability.
That mix matters to landlords because the private rented sector tends to absorb some of the fallout when owner-occupier supply stays tight. Fewer completions mean fewer move-up chains, fewer exit options for renters trying to buy, and a longer wait for any meaningful easing in the supply-demand imbalance.
Why landlords should care about the shortfall now
This is not a simple bullish story for rents. Demand can stay high while tenant affordability remains stretched, which limits how much pricing power landlords can really use. But it does point to a market where availability is unlikely to improve quickly.
This follows Landlord Knowledge’s earlier coverage of planning reform near transport hubs, which raised the question of whether policy changes would materially lift delivery. Savills’ latest forecast suggests that, for now, the pipeline problem is still running ahead of the policy fix.
Landlords looking at acquisition plans should also read the figures alongside recent signals on slowing rent inflation and rebounding house prices. In other words, demand pressure may persist, but the operating environment is no longer as simple as buying into relentless rent growth.
Support for first-time buyers could change the picture
Savills argued that a support scheme for first-time buyers could improve completions, lifting annual delivery to about 198,000 by 2028/29. Even that would still fall short of the government’s headline target, but it would stop output sliding further below the recent decade average.
For landlords, that creates a practical split in strategy. Investors banking on chronic undersupply alone may be underestimating how quickly policy support can shift parts of the market. But those expecting a fast flood of new stock into the market look even less likely to be proved right.
The stronger reading is that supply constraints remain a medium-term support for the rental market, while affordability and regulation still limit how much benefit landlords can actually extract from them.
What this means for landlords
- If you’re buying: do not assume a major new-build surge will quickly soften tenant demand in your area.
- Watch for: any first-time buyer support package that could change transaction flows and reduce rental demand at the margin.
- Bottom line: weak housing delivery is still supporting the rental backdrop, but affordability remains the brake on stronger rent rises.
Editor’s view
Landlords should not cheer a supply failure that leaves the wider market stuck. But they do need to read it clearly. The promised housebuilding reset still looks too slow to change rental conditions in the near term.
Author: Editorial Team – UK landlord & buy-to-let news, policy, and finance
Published: 26 June 2026
Sources: Savills
Related reading: Planning reform could fast-track homes near stations and boost development
